Lula wins runoff with 51.79% of votes, blocking planned embassy move

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 51.79 percent of the valid votes in Brazil's presidential runoff, defeating Flavio Bolsonaro, who received 48.21 percent. This result keeps Lula in office and prevents a major diplomatic change that his opponent had promised to enact within months of taking power.

Bolsonaro, a senator from the Liberal Party, had pledged to deepen Brazil's relationship with Israel. On June 28, 2026, he told a group of Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires that his administration would move the country's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. He stated that in 2027, Brazil would not only have an ambassador but would complete that relocation.

Lula's stance on Israel has been more critical. In January 2024, his government supported South Africa's decision to sue Israel for genocide at the International Court of Justice. The following month, Lula compared the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza to the Holocaust, a remark that sparked a diplomatic crisis. Brazil's Jewish umbrella organization, CONIB, called the comparison a distortion that offended Holocaust victims.

Bolsonaro said on October 26 that he did not accept the election results, though experts note it is unclear how he could challenge the official count. His victory in the first round on October 4 had prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to send a congratulatory message on X, saying he looked forward to restoring the friendship between the two nations.

The election outcome interrupts a recent trend in the region. Several Latin American leaders have moved closer to Israel since 2023. Argentine President Javier Milei made support for Israel a core part of his foreign policy. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira restored diplomatic ties in 2025 after his predecessor severed them. Honduran President Nasry Asfura recognized a new Israeli ambassador, while Chilean President José Antonio Kast is rebuilding diminished ties.

Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, elected in May 2026, also restored ties and sent his foreign minister to inaugurate an embassy in Jerusalem. He also withdrew Colombia from the ICJ genocide case against Israel. Lula's reelection ensures Brazil remains aligned with its previous, more critical posture toward Israel's military actions in Gaza.

The gap between the two candidates was narrow, with less than four percentage points separating them. Bolsonaro had campaigned on a platform of closer ties with Jerusalem, appealing to the 120,000 Jews in Brazil whom he described as among the brightest in the country's medicine, industry, and science sectors.