640,000 First-Time Israelis Vote Tuesday

Israelis head to polling stations on Tuesday, Oct. 27, in a general election where a specific demographic segment holds substantial leverage. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) calculates that 640,000 citizens aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote for the first time. This group constitutes nearly 10% of the total electorate. Analysts suggest their collective decision could sway the outcome for as many as 12 of the 120 seats in the Knesset.

The IDI co-sponsored a recent event with the Yigal Allon Center to engage these voters. Tammy Hoffman, who heads the IDI's education policy program, explained that the high birth rate in Israel creates a large youth cohort. "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference," Hoffman said. She noted that the institute's data indicates a strong propensity to participate among this age group.

Surveys conducted by the IDI in May indicate high confidence among new voters. Across Jewish and Arab populations, between 80% and 95% stated they would definitely or probably cast a ballot. Secular Jewish youth reported the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents expressed similar intent. For comparison, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement recorded a youth turnout of 47% in the 2024 US presidential election. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain to vote, with another 19% likely to participate.

Economic concerns and national security dominate the priorities of these voters. Hoffman observed that this generation experienced junior high during the pandemic, witnessed judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of Oct. 7. "They are worried about their future," she stated. An N12 poll conducted on Sept. 23 found that 74% of young people identified as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that survey, 16% supported Yair Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% supported Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud.

Individual voters illustrate the range of preferences within this demographic. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to support the opposition "change bloc." She is considering voting for the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar, led by Eisenkot. Chernyvsky, who is in an army preparation program in the Negev, cited the need to change the country's future. She has not finalized her choice but expressed confidence that the opposition can remove Netanyahu, who has led the government since 2009 with a brief exception in 2021 and 2022.

Other young voters align with different factions based on specific policy goals. Omer Gross of Jerusalem, currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, intends to back the Religious Zionist party. He supports the party's West Bank policies despite disagreements with its approach in Gaza. "We need a strong, secure Israel," Gross said. His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc. Shiloh wants the next government to mandate military service for ultra-Orthodox men and to reduce living costs.

Economic factors also drive voting decisions for some servicemembers. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M to maintain anonymity per IDF regulations, cited the cost of tuition, books, food, and housing as primary concerns. He plans to vote for the Democrats on economic grounds. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shef-Amra, prioritizes closing resource gaps and tackling crime in Arab communities. He is urging his peers to vote, stating, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."

The election results will determine the composition of the new Knesset. The 640,000 first-time voters represent a concentrated block of ballots that parties are actively courting. Their participation rate and party choices will directly influence the seat count for major and minor political lists. The final tally will be known as votes are counted in the days following Tuesday's poll.