Israelis vote to decide if Netanyahu stays after three war years

Israelis voted on Tuesday in a national election that determines whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power after three years of war. The country faces unresolved conflicts and deep internal division over its leadership and identity. More than 7 million people are eligible to participate in the vote.

Opinion polls indicate a tight race between Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Israel’s parliamentary system is fragmented, meaning no single party has ever secured an outright majority. Leaders must build coalitions to form a government. It is possible that neither Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist bloc nor the group seeking to replace him will command a majority immediately. That scenario could trigger weeks of negotiations before a new leader is confirmed.

Arab-led parties, which are encouraging high turnout, may become decisive in the outcome. If they choose to support one candidate over the other and other parties agree to join forces with them, these groups could determine the next government.

Tensions with Iran hang over the election. Netanyahu increased threats against Tehran ahead of the vote. He appeared in a video this week standing beside a missile-defense battery. He warned Iran it would face a devastating blow if it attacked Israel.

This is the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, attack that sparked the war in Gaza and related regional conflicts. In Tel Aviv, families of those killed on October 7 and former hostages observed a moment of silence before polls opened. Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed, asked voters to remember those whose voices are no more.

Approximately 330,000 young Israelis are voting for the first time. Many face compulsory military service under the shadow of war. Tens of thousands of voters living overseas reportedly flew to Israel to cast their ballots. Emotions ran high in some locations. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the Lebanese border, one man kicked and tore down a poster of Eisenkot as polls opened.

The election serves as a referendum on Netanyahu’s lengthy leadership and the direction of the state. His supporters view him as a steady hand who has guided Israel through multiple wars. They believe he is protecting the country’s Jewish identity while checking an interventionist judiciary. Detractors call him a polarizing leader who extended the war in Gaza and the hostage crisis for political reasons. They accuse him of weakening the judiciary and allowing ultra-Orthodox Jews to avoid enlistment.

Eisenkot’s supporters see him as a capable leader with strong security credentials. His son and two nephews were killed in Gaza. They believe he feels the pain of the conflict deeply. Parties likely to support Eisenkot have pledged to improve Israel’s international standing. They also vow to conscript ultra-Orthodox men and bolster the independence of the judiciary. Israel has faced criticism and sanctions from traditional allies in Europe and elsewhere over its conduct in Gaza and the West Bank.